Great work as usual. If you can stand it, I am pretty sure your skills are in high demand in investment management, banking or consulting for risk adjusted performance attribution and ex-ante risk modelling!
I confess I did some mental gymnastics when I read "If hospitalizatios per case have been increasing much faster than hospitalizations per death, then the CFR must’ve been increasing as well."
Mentally, I eliminated "hospitalizations" from the sentence and arrived at cases/deaths = CFR - which, of course is the inverse of the CFR (deaths/case, usually expressed as deaths per 100k or 1m cases)!
good to see igor active on your thread. not that I am the third head of our own cerberus!
i posted on his stack that the spike protein is the key that unlocks a kraken - whether that is from sars-cov2 virus or from the body making it post injection.
In my (layman's) world - I would be seeing how to put the kraken back in the cage using prison bars made of IgG1 and 3 antibodies, plus using IVM/HCQ/steroids/melatonin protocols as a crude adobe prison cell until i could figure out how to make a maximum security facility!
anyway, hats off to you. very worrying developments (geert was right, it looks like - we might be running into a next variant which is more infectious AND more deadly than any we hve seen thus far.
Very disappointing if German health leaders are weakening their conduct to engage in unethical concealment as well: (regarding "Information about the proportion of people in each federal state who have received a bivalent booster is not made public and neither is the proportion of people who received their 3rd or 4th booster dose made public. The RKI is simply not releasing these data." Let's hope that these intelligent individuals remember their ethical foundation and their obligation to do what's right.
However, if you accept that Basel is close/representative enough, you can see how the absolute Covid viral load in waste water has evolved at that measuring station throughout 2022 until now:
None of your links to the CFR data work for me, but assuming it to be true, given 50% of cases are confirmed in hospital vs 10% earlier in year it seems we are back to a stage in the early part of the 2020 pandemic when most cases were being confirmed in hospital and that resulted in a high CFR of 3.4%. When more extensive testing began and more cases were confirmed outside a hospital setting CFR dropped to 0.5%
Same virus, different CFR.
CFR might also be affected by winter, low Vit D levels and high energy prices that have the elderly facing decisions to heat or eat, leaving them in a more unhealthy state
In Taiwan CFR still hovering between 0.15-0.2% but there is talk of not confirming non-serious test positives (most testing done in homes with antigen reports and get confirmed by reporting to health authorities regardless of symptom severity)
- Where does the 50% hospitalization rate come from? In the RKI data (Klinische Aspekte, cf. above), the hospitalization rate (among cases where there is data on hospitalization available) has been rising from 2% at the beginning of 2022 to 14% at the end of the year.
- If the Bundesdruckerei is sitting on some data, what might be a good strategy to squeeze it out of them?
- I have been thinking about using the DIVI ICU data (https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/downloads) to compute proxy case rates. When I do this for children, I also get the impression that recently there is either underestimation of case rates, or a more dangerous variant.
Jan 29, 2023·edited Jan 29, 2023Liked by Fabian Spieker
Gut getan. Thank you, and well done to provide details on sources and methods. And good call on the WHO's diabolical dog-dubbing.
Do we know how the terms "case" and "COVID-19" are being defined by the people publishing the data you have analyzed? (I followed the link to the OWID CFR link, but it led to a .json page that outwits me).
Jan 29, 2023·edited Jan 29, 2023Liked by Fabian Spieker
In other news, China's "exit wave" after abandoning their insane Zero Covid policy seems to have finally peaked and crashed, and far less deadly than predicted. Of course, they shunned the mRNA jabs with the notable exceptions of Macau and Hong Kong, preferring their own homegrown inactivated whole virus vaccines instead, and fewer boosters. So that is probably why it was far less disastrous. That, and they are probably still on BA.5 or XBB, before BQ or CH.
Thank you for these detailed articles! Recently, I have identified some complementary results from Destatis data, e.g. on life expectancy, sex ratios, and temporal and age correlations, which I would like to point out.
With all due respect, the chart at the end is a bit misleading. The case rate globally has dropped while the death rate has risen, of course, but did you adjust for the ~3 week lag between cases and deaths? And with changes in testing rates? The December wave just began to crash, while the death data has not caught up yet, making recent CFR data look much worse than it is?
Great post Fabian. Very much fitting my yesterday's story.
It is also highly disturbing as to its implications.
It is also upsetting just how much the authorities want to suppress this information.
Do you want to exchange large format links?
Great work as usual. If you can stand it, I am pretty sure your skills are in high demand in investment management, banking or consulting for risk adjusted performance attribution and ex-ante risk modelling!
I confess I did some mental gymnastics when I read "If hospitalizatios per case have been increasing much faster than hospitalizations per death, then the CFR must’ve been increasing as well."
Mentally, I eliminated "hospitalizations" from the sentence and arrived at cases/deaths = CFR - which, of course is the inverse of the CFR (deaths/case, usually expressed as deaths per 100k or 1m cases)!
good to see igor active on your thread. not that I am the third head of our own cerberus!
i posted on his stack that the spike protein is the key that unlocks a kraken - whether that is from sars-cov2 virus or from the body making it post injection.
In my (layman's) world - I would be seeing how to put the kraken back in the cage using prison bars made of IgG1 and 3 antibodies, plus using IVM/HCQ/steroids/melatonin protocols as a crude adobe prison cell until i could figure out how to make a maximum security facility!
anyway, hats off to you. very worrying developments (geert was right, it looks like - we might be running into a next variant which is more infectious AND more deadly than any we hve seen thus far.
Excellent thinking.
Very disappointing if German health leaders are weakening their conduct to engage in unethical concealment as well: (regarding "Information about the proportion of people in each federal state who have received a bivalent booster is not made public and neither is the proportion of people who received their 3rd or 4th booster dose made public. The RKI is simply not releasing these data." Let's hope that these intelligent individuals remember their ethical foundation and their obligation to do what's right.
That rise in CFR is alarming!
Could part of it be that they are testing less?
Thanks for the good article.
Maybe the viral load in waste water could (should ?) be considered to get a feeling if the testing is not occurring as often, or if infections are down. There might not be a direct relation between both, but it will give a good idea. I think chapter 3 of https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2023-01-26.pdf?__blob=publicationFile speaks about that, but one would need the absolute figures... which I am not sure are avail. for Germany.
However, if you accept that Basel is close/representative enough, you can see how the absolute Covid viral load in waste water has evolved at that measuring station throughout 2022 until now:
https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiologic/waste-water?wasteWaterGeoValue=diffPrevWeek&rel=abs&wasteWaterFacility=270101&wasteWaterZoomDev=2022-02-07_2023-01-30
You can clearly see the "waves" at that link, and that the current wave (ie end 2022/start 2023) is ca. 8x less than the one of March 2022.
None of your links to the CFR data work for me, but assuming it to be true, given 50% of cases are confirmed in hospital vs 10% earlier in year it seems we are back to a stage in the early part of the 2020 pandemic when most cases were being confirmed in hospital and that resulted in a high CFR of 3.4%. When more extensive testing began and more cases were confirmed outside a hospital setting CFR dropped to 0.5%
Same virus, different CFR.
CFR might also be affected by winter, low Vit D levels and high energy prices that have the elderly facing decisions to heat or eat, leaving them in a more unhealthy state
In Taiwan CFR still hovering between 0.15-0.2% but there is talk of not confirming non-serious test positives (most testing done in homes with antigen reports and get confirmed by reporting to health authorities regardless of symptom severity)
I sincerely hope you are wrong. I know in my gut you are not.
Again, great work. A few remarks:
- The proportion of people who received their 3rd or 4th booster is in the RKI data (https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html), but without differentiation by age group (I guess it's almost completely 60+) and without differentiation by type of booster.
- I don't trust the official case rates. For example, basically all through 2022, the official number of cases (https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Klinische_Aspekte.html) has been much higher (20%-40%) than the number of positive PCR test results (https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Testzahl.html). Many cases seem to be determined by positive antigen test only. On the other hand, I am sure that there is enormous underreporting (at least I did never report my infections to the authorities...).
- Where does the 50% hospitalization rate come from? In the RKI data (Klinische Aspekte, cf. above), the hospitalization rate (among cases where there is data on hospitalization available) has been rising from 2% at the beginning of 2022 to 14% at the end of the year.
- If the Bundesdruckerei is sitting on some data, what might be a good strategy to squeeze it out of them?
- I have been thinking about using the DIVI ICU data (https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/downloads) to compute proxy case rates. When I do this for children, I also get the impression that recently there is either underestimation of case rates, or a more dangerous variant.
Gut getan. Thank you, and well done to provide details on sources and methods. And good call on the WHO's diabolical dog-dubbing.
Do we know how the terms "case" and "COVID-19" are being defined by the people publishing the data you have analyzed? (I followed the link to the OWID CFR link, but it led to a .json page that outwits me).
Thank you. I have also just listened to the latest from John Beaudoin and Chris Martenson...
https://coquindechien.substack.com/p/we-the-people-want-the-vax-dates?utm_medium=ios
https://rumble.com/v2a7wtk-john-beaudoin-500000-death-certificates-tell-of-signals-fraud-and-unlawful-.html
https://rumble.com/v257tpw-john-beaudoin-exposes-truth-of-covid-deaths-from-medical-records-live.html
https://youtu.be/HhHJ51FJC2w
oh dear.. that's one trajectory
Tanks à lot. An error for the first of the three links for immune tolérance ?
excellent analysis. very thorough. thank you.
In other news, China's "exit wave" after abandoning their insane Zero Covid policy seems to have finally peaked and crashed, and far less deadly than predicted. Of course, they shunned the mRNA jabs with the notable exceptions of Macau and Hong Kong, preferring their own homegrown inactivated whole virus vaccines instead, and fewer boosters. So that is probably why it was far less disastrous. That, and they are probably still on BA.5 or XBB, before BQ or CH.
Thank you for these detailed articles! Recently, I have identified some complementary results from Destatis data, e.g. on life expectancy, sex ratios, and temporal and age correlations, which I would like to point out.
https://ulflorr.substack.com/
With all due respect, the chart at the end is a bit misleading. The case rate globally has dropped while the death rate has risen, of course, but did you adjust for the ~3 week lag between cases and deaths? And with changes in testing rates? The December wave just began to crash, while the death data has not caught up yet, making recent CFR data look much worse than it is?