With all due respect, the chart at the end is a bit misleading. The case rate globally has dropped while the death rate has risen, of course, but did you adjust for the ~3 week lag between cases and deaths? And with changes in testing rates? The December wave just began to crash, while the death data has not caught up yet, making recent CFR data look much worse than it is?
With all due respect, the chart at the end is a bit misleading. The case rate globally has dropped while the death rate has risen, of course, but did you adjust for the ~3 week lag between cases and deaths? And with changes in testing rates? The December wave just began to crash, while the death data has not caught up yet, making recent CFR data look much worse than it is?
Thanks. I just checked Our World in Data the other day, looked at the Case Fatality Rate curve for the world, and saw no significant increase in recent weeks or months.
Of course, OWID has long put the CFR at around 1% for a while now, as they seem to calculate it crudely at face value based only on confirmed cases, while we know that the true IFR is a fraction of that, likely 0.1% or lower since Omicron, and 0.2-0.3% in most places before Omicron. (Most infections go undetected.)
In case I misunderstood you, you can link to substack graphics by clicking the graphic in the article so it enlarges, then right click, copy link to image or something, but I am sure you know that.
The lag is taken care of by our world in data. I just smoothed it. That's why I picked another data source for the cfr instead of just dividing deaths by cases.
I honestly hope it's misleading, but I didn't misrepresent it. It was meant as a cue for people to look into what is going on in their countries.
Maybe I should remove it. I could see how that would induce an unnecessary amount of fear for some. Then again, we should be taking this very seriously
With all due respect, the chart at the end is a bit misleading. The case rate globally has dropped while the death rate has risen, of course, but did you adjust for the ~3 week lag between cases and deaths? And with changes in testing rates? The December wave just began to crash, while the death data has not caught up yet, making recent CFR data look much worse than it is?
Do you think I should remove the worldwide CFR graph? I was hesitant to even include it.
Yes, you probably should remove it for now.
Ok I will. Bit late. I only saw your comment now...
Thanks. I just checked Our World in Data the other day, looked at the Case Fatality Rate curve for the world, and saw no significant increase in recent weeks or months.
Of course, OWID has long put the CFR at around 1% for a while now, as they seem to calculate it crudely at face value based only on confirmed cases, while we know that the true IFR is a fraction of that, likely 0.1% or lower since Omicron, and 0.2-0.3% in most places before Omicron. (Most infections go undetected.)
I think it's misleading without accounting for variation in testing.
Removing it.
It has recovered a little anyway:
https://substack.pervaers.com/misc/Untitled-7.png
How do you create links to graphics within substack?
(I posted some graphics under your Twitter post.)
Oh that link is on my website, http://pervaers.com
Check it out, it's chart pornography. :D
In case I misunderstood you, you can link to substack graphics by clicking the graphic in the article so it enlarges, then right click, copy link to image or something, but I am sure you know that.
The lag is taken care of by our world in data. I just smoothed it. That's why I picked another data source for the cfr instead of just dividing deaths by cases.
I honestly hope it's misleading, but I didn't misrepresent it. It was meant as a cue for people to look into what is going on in their countries.
Maybe I should remove it. I could see how that would induce an unnecessary amount of fear for some. Then again, we should be taking this very seriously