I have just published a supplementary work on the birth decline in Sweden. Sweden released new very recent data yesterday, stretching to February 2023. It still doesn't look like it's getting any better.
Btw I like your charts. Good choice of colors, line thickness etc, very readable.
I'm wondering how much propaganda and agitation contributed. They started around April and increased the intensity all throughout 2021 in most places. More than 10% of the population in most places fell victim to some form of white torture.
Having more children was most definitely the last thing I was thinking about during that time.
There has also been some direct anti-reproduction propaganda which has been unleashed primarily by the likes of Netflix and Disney, but also by most other major propaganda outlets in more or less subtle form.
Most of my unvaccinated friends are still suicidal after having been let down by nearly everyone they loved. I got back on my feet, but I am now without a wife. I expect everyone who got stuck in that state of mind to be temporally removed from the gene pool.
Thank you for the compliment, dear Fabian. The graphics are generated as PDF with the basic plot function in R and converted to PNG. Unfortunately, my English is not very good. Automatic translators make a bigger contribution to the result than I would like. ;-)
I see. I haven't gotten around to using R yet. Since I have not studied math/data science or the like, I force myself to write all functions I need, so I won't get around understanding them. :D
Christian wanted to ask you something and wondered if I had your email address. Do you use discord by any chance? He has a channel there. You could just drop me a line me@pervaers.com , so I can either give you an invite to his channel or give him your address. He's a German statistician himself.
Well, I'm not a mathematician either (engineer). I came to R because the Excel sheets got too big at some point. It is well known that one should always use the largest possible tool. Learning then comes automatically at work. ;-)
Apr 14, 2023·edited Apr 14, 2023Liked by Fabian Spieker
Nice that Fabian has introduced us to your work, Ulf. I just posted a link back to it in a comment on Meryl Nass's post today. This comment also suggests something relevant for analysis for Fabian / Ulf if you are interested in looking -- it would be curious to see what's going on in Ireland. (And if either of you have data regarding specific complications of pregnancy, that would be of interest to many people.)
"Italy’s national birth rate decline declared a national emergency--Sky News
Per the BBC: “Italy's birth rate, now at the lowest since its unification in 1861. It's declined every year since the 2008 financial crisis.”
My comment: "This is interesting because by some estimates, celiac in Italian children may be as high as 1 in 20.
The body's endogenous Syncytin-1 is implicated in Celiac (as well as MS, which many worsening cases have been observed lately). In a scan of sequences aligning to Spike protein, Syncytin was one of the heaviest matches -- meaning that Spike may be training the body to have an immune response against Syncytin. People prone to Celiac, like the Italians, may be especially vulnerable to the design of the Spike. We recently saw statistics come out for another Celiac-heavy country, Sweden: https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/birth-decline-in-sweden-continues Next, someone needs to check Ireland, another Celiac hot-spot.
Syncytin-1 is also involved in pregnancy, trophoblast, and pathologies that arise during pregnancy threatening its outcome. In the decades of trials trying to find an anti-fertility vaccine, the classic approach is to select a protein necessary for a successful pregnancy (HCG, Syncytin, etc.) and to pair that with classic pathogenic motifs that the body will recognize and attack (many of which have been built into the Spike. Coincidence?) (https://medquotes.substack.com/p/publications-worth-mentioning). To achieve highest anti-fertility immunity so that the woman's immune system murders every pregnancy she achieves, the anti-fertility vaccine should be given 3 times according to these decades of studies. 3 times sound familiar?
Iwai et al. 2014: Transglutaminase 2-dependent Deamidation of Glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate Dehydrogenase Promotes Trophoblastic Cell Fusion. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1074/jbc.M113.525568
Anjum et al. Maternal celiac disease autoantibodies bind directly to syncytiotrophoblast and inhibit placental tissue transglutaminase activity. Reprod. Biol. Endocrinol. 2009; 7: 16
Ruebner et al. Regulation of the human endogenous retroviral Syncytin-1 and cell-cell fusion by the nuclear hormone receptors PPARγ/RXRα in placentogenesis. J. Cell Biochem. 2012; 113: 2383-2396
Seneff, S., & Nigh, G. (2021). Worse Than the Disease? Reviewing Some Possible Unintended Consequences of the mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19. International Journal of Vaccine Theory, Practice, and Research, 2(1), 38–79. https://doi.org/10.56098/ijvtpr.v2i1.23
Excellent. Happy to see you comment, always love your input.
I already commented below, but I'll say it again:
I expect 2 main factors to impact fertility:
1) Emotional inhibition by fear and social fission
2) Vaccines
So far I am seeing the larger drops where vaccination rates are low (on jurisdictional level across German states), so (1) is probably the bigger factor, but we will find out once I have collected all the data I need. I expect them both to weigh in on this.
Agitation of unvaccinated should counter-act the vaccine induced fertility reduction.
We would need to know who is experiencing a drop in fertility. Are unvaccinated people not giving birth at a higher rate than the past, or are only the vaccinated in those regions affected by lower birth rates?
Are fertility clinics seeing more demand?
What are the statistics on pregnancy loss in hospitals / gynecologists?
I was also thinking that existing data (if anyone could even access it) is going to be age-dependent:
-- a 24-year-old couple who stopped using birth control isn't going to pay thousands of dollars and go to a fertility clinic if they didn't get pregnant yet, whereas couples in their 40s might if they could afford it. Therefore fertility clinic data should be analyzed within narrow age bands.
-- women experiencing their first pregnancy loss (probably younger) are more likely to go to the hospital (thus generating data), whereas women who are familiar with the process (likely older) will stay comfortably at home, and that data will not exist. Again, I would guess that analyzing narrow age bands and extrapolating the data to other ages would give a truer picture than one large statistic.
Yeah good points, but it's hard to even get monthly data for all these variables.
I just looked into state-level Swiss data and found a strong correlation of 0.67 between marriages and live births (surprise surprise), but no correlation between live births and vaccinations. Live births per marriage correlate very weakly positively (0.07) with vaccinations.
We all know various mechanisms by which these vaccines inhibit fertility. Nearly all drugs do. I'm starting to think the impact of the vaccines on fertility isn't nearly as strong as many people seem to believe though.
Otherwise we should really see a birth rate drop in Portugal, which has the highest vaccination rate in Europe, but higher than average fertility in 2022.
I am gonna have to keep collecting data country by country and run some regressions. We should have a clearer picture of what is going on eventually.
Right now my it seems agitation is the much bigger factor between agitation and vaccines.
Yes, England/Wales begins in 2017 as far as I can tell. Ironically their prime minister's father repeatedly promoted the idea that England was overpopulated. Similarly, we saw some pretty profound changes in mortality and natality when John Holdren was Chief Scientific Advisor under Obama.
Did England have a stricter immigration policy than the rest of Europe in the past years?
I have yet to look at birth rates. OWID should have population figures, I'll get to that in the next days and will post another short article with charts.
Curious to know whether information is available on births by socio-economic status in these countries. I have looked at this for UK, but unfamiliar with birth data in other countries.
Thank you. I will look at your article when I get back home.
If you would like to supply monthly time series for any of the regions I will gladly incorporate those.
I honestly don't think the vaccines are responsible for this at the moment. They must have a diminishing effect on fertility, but it seems agitation campaigns are the bigger factor, just by looking at the raw data for Germany, Switzerland and Portugal.
So I think the hottest independents here for a regression would be the monthly number of marriages.
Ultimately it'll come down to how much data I can find in a reasonable amount of time to run multiple linear regressions like these:
I don't get any Twitter followers. Even made a new account a few months ago with which I abstained from insulting government officials (or any other people for that matter), but nothing. Nobody reads my replies, nobody sees my tweets, just ridiculous.
Although a lot of work, can maybe adjust using country population by year, note this censors out the report expected in mid-2022, perhaps too revealing: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sp.pop.totl
Going to have to ask a question. The term excess deaths being common, I understand it to be ... more than expected vs. a trendline, correct? So based on the charts, we're talking about a sort of negative excess aka reduction?
Have any of the 195 countries in the world had an increase (actual excess) of births per woman?
(where births per woman would account for immigration)
I'm guessing the reduction of excess new consumers per day from +234,000 in early 2020 to +215,000 last time I checked means the pzp program is working to reduce births. (based on UN figures)
Sorry I hadn't finished my reply. Was doing ten things at a time.
To be honest I am not sure if the term excess births is common. I just use "excess" as a prefix to describe that I am comparing a datapoint to the mean value in the same calendar week/month/quarter throughout reference years.
I will look at births p.c., births per woman in child bearing age, births relative to new marriages, depending on how difficult it is to get these data.
In Europe for instance, there was mass immigration in 2016 by people who value having large families, and free health care and housing isn't prohibitory to those goals.
The data shows (to me) a normal variation between countries in 2017-18, but after that trends negative except for the Netherlands. Why would the Netherlands show positive excess births after the vaccinations? That stands out to me.
While I do assume that batches are of extremely inconsistent quality for various reasons, I am not a big fan of this type of analysis.
- No age adjustment
- No gender adjustment
- No taking infection status into account (she does not believe in the existence of virus particles)
- No proportional analysis of the SYMPTOMS field.
These are all big issues because different batches were administered to different subpopulations (varying proportions of children, medical personnel etc.) at different points in time of this bio-massacre.
I cannot stress enough how insanely complex this situation is.
I have done an analysis for nearly all batches, using Gary Hawking's spelling correction based batch list. Alas I don't have the website online anymore. I analyzed the batches in the exact same way as I analyzed report cohorts on
I lowered confidence intervals to 50%, but other than that it was the same type of proportional analysis.
A few batches stood out. A few very exotic symptoms occurred at increased proportions among those and in about 5 to 10 of them the SYMPTOM "Death" or the boolean field DIED stood out.
However those batches were not the ones with the most registered events. In fact, some of those that look really worrying at first glance turned out to be representative for the vast majority of batches after age- and gender-adjusted proportional analysis of all MedDRA terms.
A Spanish friend made this comment after I forwarded the Substack to them: “the main variable of the on-coming years is the economic crisis in Europe for sure. The prices are very high and young people are feeling insecure. (due to Ukraine war). Another issue is the immigration, no immigration during the pandemic. Considering that the immigrants considerably increase the birth rate, so the population in Europe is becoming « old ».”
Excellent, thank you. I am indeed considering other factors might be playing a big role here. I'm a long way from having made up my mind about the vaccines being responsible.
I was also mentioning this earlier:
I'm wondering how much propaganda and agitation contributed. They started around April and increased the intensity all throughout 2021 in most places. More than 10% of the population in most places fell victim to white torture techniques intended to make their lives as hard as possible unless they took the shot.
Having more children was most definitely the last thing I was thinking about during that time.
Well I am using 2017-2019 as reference. When there is a linear downwards trend in those 3 years, you will usually see 2017 above, 2018 around and 2019 below zero.
Keep that in mind when you are looking at any of the charts. If there is a linear trend, it is still in there.
While it doesn't match all of the countries, it would make sense to me that in a country where there are excess births, the following year there will be a negative drop because the women of childbearing age generally don't give birth two years in a row, for numerous reasons.
Thank you for your great work, Fabian!
I have just published a supplementary work on the birth decline in Sweden. Sweden released new very recent data yesterday, stretching to February 2023. It still doesn't look like it's getting any better.
https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/birth-decline-in-sweden-continues?sd=pf
Oh wow. Those lagging vaccinations, just wow.
Btw I like your charts. Good choice of colors, line thickness etc, very readable.
I'm wondering how much propaganda and agitation contributed. They started around April and increased the intensity all throughout 2021 in most places. More than 10% of the population in most places fell victim to some form of white torture.
Having more children was most definitely the last thing I was thinking about during that time.
There has also been some direct anti-reproduction propaganda which has been unleashed primarily by the likes of Netflix and Disney, but also by most other major propaganda outlets in more or less subtle form.
Most of my unvaccinated friends are still suicidal after having been let down by nearly everyone they loved. I got back on my feet, but I am now without a wife. I expect everyone who got stuck in that state of mind to be temporally removed from the gene pool.
Thank you for the compliment, dear Fabian. The graphics are generated as PDF with the basic plot function in R and converted to PNG. Unfortunately, my English is not very good. Automatic translators make a bigger contribution to the result than I would like. ;-)
I see. I haven't gotten around to using R yet. Since I have not studied math/data science or the like, I force myself to write all functions I need, so I won't get around understanding them. :D
Christian wanted to ask you something and wondered if I had your email address. Do you use discord by any chance? He has a channel there. You could just drop me a line me@pervaers.com , so I can either give you an invite to his channel or give him your address. He's a German statistician himself.
Well, I'm not a mathematician either (engineer). I came to R because the Excel sheets got too big at some point. It is well known that one should always use the largest possible tool. Learning then comes automatically at work. ;-)
Oh you're an engineer. I was assuming you were an epidemiologist when you talked about calculation of life expectancy.
I'm writing everything in javascript which I used to hate. Wouldn't really recommend anyone to use it. I just got stuck somehow. :D
I studied this: https://www.ibt.kit.edu/modell.php
I don't think JavaScript is bad at all, not even for this purpose. It's an underestimated programming language.
By the way around 1% excess proportions for spontaneous abortions in the age group 25-34.
https://pervaers.com/?v=COV&q=abortion_spontaneous
That's massive considering how few women are really pregnant at any given point in time.
Nice that Fabian has introduced us to your work, Ulf. I just posted a link back to it in a comment on Meryl Nass's post today. This comment also suggests something relevant for analysis for Fabian / Ulf if you are interested in looking -- it would be curious to see what's going on in Ireland. (And if either of you have data regarding specific complications of pregnancy, that would be of interest to many people.)
Meryl Nass: https://merylnass.substack.com/p/italys-national-birth-rate-decline
"Italy’s national birth rate decline declared a national emergency--Sky News
Per the BBC: “Italy's birth rate, now at the lowest since its unification in 1861. It's declined every year since the 2008 financial crisis.”
My comment: "This is interesting because by some estimates, celiac in Italian children may be as high as 1 in 20.
The body's endogenous Syncytin-1 is implicated in Celiac (as well as MS, which many worsening cases have been observed lately). In a scan of sequences aligning to Spike protein, Syncytin was one of the heaviest matches -- meaning that Spike may be training the body to have an immune response against Syncytin. People prone to Celiac, like the Italians, may be especially vulnerable to the design of the Spike. We recently saw statistics come out for another Celiac-heavy country, Sweden: https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/birth-decline-in-sweden-continues Next, someone needs to check Ireland, another Celiac hot-spot.
Syncytin-1 is also involved in pregnancy, trophoblast, and pathologies that arise during pregnancy threatening its outcome. In the decades of trials trying to find an anti-fertility vaccine, the classic approach is to select a protein necessary for a successful pregnancy (HCG, Syncytin, etc.) and to pair that with classic pathogenic motifs that the body will recognize and attack (many of which have been built into the Spike. Coincidence?) (https://medquotes.substack.com/p/publications-worth-mentioning). To achieve highest anti-fertility immunity so that the woman's immune system murders every pregnancy she achieves, the anti-fertility vaccine should be given 3 times according to these decades of studies. 3 times sound familiar?
Example articles:
Tovo et al. Overexpression of endogenous retroviruses in children with celiac disease. Eur J Pediatr 180, 2429–2434 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00431-021-04050-x
Iwai et al. 2014: Transglutaminase 2-dependent Deamidation of Glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate Dehydrogenase Promotes Trophoblastic Cell Fusion. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1074/jbc.M113.525568
Anjum et al. Maternal celiac disease autoantibodies bind directly to syncytiotrophoblast and inhibit placental tissue transglutaminase activity. Reprod. Biol. Endocrinol. 2009; 7: 16
Ruebner et al. Regulation of the human endogenous retroviral Syncytin-1 and cell-cell fusion by the nuclear hormone receptors PPARγ/RXRα in placentogenesis. J. Cell Biochem. 2012; 113: 2383-2396
Neil and Cadwell. The Intestinal Virome and Immunity. J Immunol 15 September 2018; 201 (6): 1615–1624. https://doi.org/10.4049/jimmunol.1800631
Fierz, W. Multiple sclerosis: an example of pathogenic viral interaction?. Virol J 14, 42 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12985-017-0719-3
And here's Seneff and Nigh reporting on it:
Seneff, S., & Nigh, G. (2021). Worse Than the Disease? Reviewing Some Possible Unintended Consequences of the mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19. International Journal of Vaccine Theory, Practice, and Research, 2(1), 38–79. https://doi.org/10.56098/ijvtpr.v2i1.23
Excellent. Happy to see you comment, always love your input.
I already commented below, but I'll say it again:
I expect 2 main factors to impact fertility:
1) Emotional inhibition by fear and social fission
2) Vaccines
So far I am seeing the larger drops where vaccination rates are low (on jurisdictional level across German states), so (1) is probably the bigger factor, but we will find out once I have collected all the data I need. I expect them both to weigh in on this.
Agitation of unvaccinated should counter-act the vaccine induced fertility reduction.
We would need to know who is experiencing a drop in fertility. Are unvaccinated people not giving birth at a higher rate than the past, or are only the vaccinated in those regions affected by lower birth rates?
Are fertility clinics seeing more demand?
What are the statistics on pregnancy loss in hospitals / gynecologists?
I will just have to see what data I can find. This ultimately determines how I proceed. :/
True.
I was also thinking that existing data (if anyone could even access it) is going to be age-dependent:
-- a 24-year-old couple who stopped using birth control isn't going to pay thousands of dollars and go to a fertility clinic if they didn't get pregnant yet, whereas couples in their 40s might if they could afford it. Therefore fertility clinic data should be analyzed within narrow age bands.
-- women experiencing their first pregnancy loss (probably younger) are more likely to go to the hospital (thus generating data), whereas women who are familiar with the process (likely older) will stay comfortably at home, and that data will not exist. Again, I would guess that analyzing narrow age bands and extrapolating the data to other ages would give a truer picture than one large statistic.
Yeah good points, but it's hard to even get monthly data for all these variables.
I just looked into state-level Swiss data and found a strong correlation of 0.67 between marriages and live births (surprise surprise), but no correlation between live births and vaccinations. Live births per marriage correlate very weakly positively (0.07) with vaccinations.
We all know various mechanisms by which these vaccines inhibit fertility. Nearly all drugs do. I'm starting to think the impact of the vaccines on fertility isn't nearly as strong as many people seem to believe though.
Otherwise we should really see a birth rate drop in Portugal, which has the highest vaccination rate in Europe, but higher than average fertility in 2022.
I am gonna have to keep collecting data country by country and run some regressions. We should have a clearer picture of what is going on eventually.
Right now my it seems agitation is the much bigger factor between agitation and vaccines.
It is really interesting to see the nations whose negative excess birth trends begin in 2019, if not a little sooner. Hmmmmm...
Yes, England/Wales begins in 2017 as far as I can tell. Ironically their prime minister's father repeatedly promoted the idea that England was overpopulated. Similarly, we saw some pretty profound changes in mortality and natality when John Holdren was Chief Scientific Advisor under Obama.
Did England have a stricter immigration policy than the rest of Europe in the past years?
I have yet to look at birth rates. OWID should have population figures, I'll get to that in the next days and will post another short article with charts.
https://open.substack.com/pub/alexberenson/p/from-the-start-they-lied-about-the
Do you have the Maryland data that Alex refers to here? I assume you do, but just in case.
I haven't looked at the data, but I did become a paid member to comment on that post yesterday. Thank you
Ah! I hadn't read through all of the comments. Good that you know about this already.
Curious to know whether information is available on births by socio-economic status in these countries. I have looked at this for UK, but unfamiliar with birth data in other countries.
https://open.substack.com/pub/inumero/p/birth-data-in-uk-trend-of-who-is?r=tv61s&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Thank you. I will look at your article when I get back home.
If you would like to supply monthly time series for any of the regions I will gladly incorporate those.
I honestly don't think the vaccines are responsible for this at the moment. They must have a diminishing effect on fertility, but it seems agitation campaigns are the bigger factor, just by looking at the raw data for Germany, Switzerland and Portugal.
So I think the hottest independents here for a regression would be the monthly number of marriages.
Ultimately it'll come down to how much data I can find in a reasonable amount of time to run multiple linear regressions like these:
https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/78-95%3BTRIVARIATE_MODEL%3Ball_standardized%3B20sec%3B1681476291969.mp4
https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/78-95%3BTRIVARIATE_MODEL%3B20sec%3B1681476165250.mp4
Any help is appreciated and everyone who helps gets the credit he deserves. :)
Sharing on Twitter
https://twitter.com/FluoridePoison
Thank you :)
I don't get any Twitter followers. Even made a new account a few months ago with which I abstained from insulting government officials (or any other people for that matter), but nothing. Nobody reads my replies, nobody sees my tweets, just ridiculous.
Just shared you on Twitter
Although a lot of work, can maybe adjust using country population by year, note this censors out the report expected in mid-2022, perhaps too revealing: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sp.pop.totl
Going to have to ask a question. The term excess deaths being common, I understand it to be ... more than expected vs. a trendline, correct? So based on the charts, we're talking about a sort of negative excess aka reduction?
Have any of the 195 countries in the world had an increase (actual excess) of births per woman?
(where births per woman would account for immigration)
I'm guessing the reduction of excess new consumers per day from +234,000 in early 2020 to +215,000 last time I checked means the pzp program is working to reduce births. (based on UN figures)
Sorry I hadn't finished my reply. Was doing ten things at a time.
To be honest I am not sure if the term excess births is common. I just use "excess" as a prefix to describe that I am comparing a datapoint to the mean value in the same calendar week/month/quarter throughout reference years.
Yes of course this is all coming.
I will look at births p.c., births per woman in child bearing age, births relative to new marriages, depending on how difficult it is to get these data.
Canadian birth data plots are here:
https://opencanada.shinyapps.io/info/#section-live-births-vs-stillbirths
Note Canada has not published yet for 2022
Thank you.
We are going to have to wait for the US data until August or September I think.
Very useful summary. It looks pretty grim out there!
Canadian birth data plots are here:
https://opencanada.shinyapps.io/info/#section-live-births-vs-stillbirths
Note Canada has not published yet for 2022
What happened in 2017? The charts show positive births for many countries then decline thereafter.
In Europe for instance, there was mass immigration in 2016 by people who value having large families, and free health care and housing isn't prohibitory to those goals.
I am starting to think something entirely different is going on here.
Marriages will serve as an indicator for "romantic health" of residents. I'll work this out. So far, every detail I've seen confirmed the notion.
Looking at Portugal, Switzerland and Germany is extremely revealing when you know about what went on in these countries since 2020.
The data shows (to me) a normal variation between countries in 2017-18, but after that trends negative except for the Netherlands. Why would the Netherlands show positive excess births after the vaccinations? That stands out to me.
Yes a lot of them don't match the narrative of vaccines causing these fertility drops we are seeing in some countries.
They may very well be a factor, but these charts clearly show that there must be plenty of other factors involved that we can not just ignore.
I am just not sure what's going on.
Sasha Latypova has shown that lots of the vaccine vary quite a bit. “Bad” batches versus less harmful batches are a possible source of the variance.
She did, yes.
While I do assume that batches are of extremely inconsistent quality for various reasons, I am not a big fan of this type of analysis.
- No age adjustment
- No gender adjustment
- No taking infection status into account (she does not believe in the existence of virus particles)
- No proportional analysis of the SYMPTOMS field.
These are all big issues because different batches were administered to different subpopulations (varying proportions of children, medical personnel etc.) at different points in time of this bio-massacre.
I cannot stress enough how insanely complex this situation is.
I have done an analysis for nearly all batches, using Gary Hawking's spelling correction based batch list. Alas I don't have the website online anymore. I analyzed the batches in the exact same way as I analyzed report cohorts on
https://pervaers.com
I lowered confidence intervals to 50%, but other than that it was the same type of proportional analysis.
A few batches stood out. A few very exotic symptoms occurred at increased proportions among those and in about 5 to 10 of them the SYMPTOM "Death" or the boolean field DIED stood out.
However those batches were not the ones with the most registered events. In fact, some of those that look really worrying at first glance turned out to be representative for the vast majority of batches after age- and gender-adjusted proportional analysis of all MedDRA terms.
A Spanish friend made this comment after I forwarded the Substack to them: “the main variable of the on-coming years is the economic crisis in Europe for sure. The prices are very high and young people are feeling insecure. (due to Ukraine war). Another issue is the immigration, no immigration during the pandemic. Considering that the immigrants considerably increase the birth rate, so the population in Europe is becoming « old ».”
Excellent, thank you. I am indeed considering other factors might be playing a big role here. I'm a long way from having made up my mind about the vaccines being responsible.
I was also mentioning this earlier:
I'm wondering how much propaganda and agitation contributed. They started around April and increased the intensity all throughout 2021 in most places. More than 10% of the population in most places fell victim to white torture techniques intended to make their lives as hard as possible unless they took the shot.
Having more children was most definitely the last thing I was thinking about during that time.
Well I am using 2017-2019 as reference. When there is a linear downwards trend in those 3 years, you will usually see 2017 above, 2018 around and 2019 below zero.
Keep that in mind when you are looking at any of the charts. If there is a linear trend, it is still in there.
I will be looking at Excess Birth Rates later.
Hi Fabian,
While it doesn't match all of the countries, it would make sense to me that in a country where there are excess births, the following year there will be a negative drop because the women of childbearing age generally don't give birth two years in a row, for numerous reasons.
If you observe something like this, it is usually due to an external influencing factor. Natural cycles are seasonal but very consistent.
The death figures are different. Natural waves of death are at work here, which are much larger than in the case of births.
But would you say that still rings true after an extraordinary event like lockdowns?
I never questioned the notion of a pull-forward effect in fertility, that if I remember correctly was pushed by journals like Lancet.
I would count lockdowns and other measures among the non-natural influencing factors. I share your opinion there.
Of child bearing age with partners who are not on birth control and who will attempt to carry to term...
Yes there is a pull-forward effect as far as I know.