I have just published a supplementary work on the birth decline in Sweden. Sweden released new very recent data yesterday, stretching to February 2023. It still doesn't look like it's getting any better.
Curious to know whether information is available on births by socio-economic status in these countries. I have looked at this for UK, but unfamiliar with birth data in other countries.
Although a lot of work, can maybe adjust using country population by year, note this censors out the report expected in mid-2022, perhaps too revealing: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sp.pop.totl
Going to have to ask a question. The term excess deaths being common, I understand it to be ... more than expected vs. a trendline, correct? So based on the charts, we're talking about a sort of negative excess aka reduction?
Have any of the 195 countries in the world had an increase (actual excess) of births per woman?
(where births per woman would account for immigration)
I'm guessing the reduction of excess new consumers per day from +234,000 in early 2020 to +215,000 last time I checked means the pzp program is working to reduce births. (based on UN figures)
While it doesn't match all of the countries, it would make sense to me that in a country where there are excess births, the following year there will be a negative drop because the women of childbearing age generally don't give birth two years in a row, for numerous reasons.
Thank you for your great work, Fabian!
I have just published a supplementary work on the birth decline in Sweden. Sweden released new very recent data yesterday, stretching to February 2023. It still doesn't look like it's getting any better.
https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/birth-decline-in-sweden-continues?sd=pf
It is really interesting to see the nations whose negative excess birth trends begin in 2019, if not a little sooner. Hmmmmm...
Curious to know whether information is available on births by socio-economic status in these countries. I have looked at this for UK, but unfamiliar with birth data in other countries.
https://open.substack.com/pub/inumero/p/birth-data-in-uk-trend-of-who-is?r=tv61s&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Sharing on Twitter
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Although a lot of work, can maybe adjust using country population by year, note this censors out the report expected in mid-2022, perhaps too revealing: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sp.pop.totl
Going to have to ask a question. The term excess deaths being common, I understand it to be ... more than expected vs. a trendline, correct? So based on the charts, we're talking about a sort of negative excess aka reduction?
Have any of the 195 countries in the world had an increase (actual excess) of births per woman?
(where births per woman would account for immigration)
I'm guessing the reduction of excess new consumers per day from +234,000 in early 2020 to +215,000 last time I checked means the pzp program is working to reduce births. (based on UN figures)
Canadian birth data plots are here:
https://opencanada.shinyapps.io/info/#section-live-births-vs-stillbirths
Note Canada has not published yet for 2022
Very useful summary. It looks pretty grim out there!
Canadian birth data plots are here:
https://opencanada.shinyapps.io/info/#section-live-births-vs-stillbirths
Note Canada has not published yet for 2022
What happened in 2017? The charts show positive births for many countries then decline thereafter.
Hi Fabian,
While it doesn't match all of the countries, it would make sense to me that in a country where there are excess births, the following year there will be a negative drop because the women of childbearing age generally don't give birth two years in a row, for numerous reasons.