Just The Charts: European Excess Live Births

Monthly Excess Live Births In 22 Countries Between 2017 and 2022

Introduction

I created a few charts representing excess births for quick reference this morning which I am sharing with you.

The lion share of the work was done by Christian Meyer. You can find all figures along with figures for monthly deaths in the xls file he is supplying. Many thanks to Christian!

European births slideshow reloaded

Another substacker - Ulf Lorré - who has just recently started posting has also done some great work on this topic.

Birth decline in Sweden continues 2023

He co-authored the paper “Decline Of Live Births In Europe”, which is available in 3 languages:

• Decline Of Live Births In Europe (English Version)

• Geburtenrückgang In Europa (Original German Version)

• Baisse De La Natalité En Europe (French Version)

Methods

• The number of live births of each month is divided by the mean number of live births in the same calendar month between 2017 and 2019

• 1 is subtracted from the result to yield excess live births

This does not take into account demographic changes. Some countries - like Poland and England - show strong linear trends which I have not corrected for either.

The charts are all y-scaled from -40% to 10% to ease visual comparison.

Germany and Switzerland are still missing figures for December 2022.

I will be performing more work on this, while this article will merely serve me as a quick reference.

Results

A Note To My Subscribers

I have been very busy analyzing US Mortality data and have prepared an elaborate article of over 50 pages dedicated to the Q3’2021 death wave, which is not quite finished yet. I might be done in a couple of days or I might take a few more weeks. Just rest assured that I am working on this.

If you are curious what the article is about, you can watch a few preview videos here. I have since moved on to creating videos of multi-linear regressions which display the weights of independent variables in a side chart.