Vigilance per VAERS

Share this post

Just The Charts: European Excess Live Births

vigilance.pervaers.com

Discover more from Vigilance per VAERS

COVID-focussed epidemiology and pharmacovigilance newsletter.
Over 1,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

Just The Charts: European Excess Live Births

Monthly Excess Live Births In 22 Countries Between 2017 and 2022

Fabian Spieker
Apr 13, 2023
31
Share this post

Just The Charts: European Excess Live Births

vigilance.pervaers.com
48
Share

Introduction

I created a few charts representing excess births for quick reference this morning which I am sharing with you.

The lion share of the work was done by Christian Meyer. You can find all figures along with figures for monthly deaths in the xls file he is supplying. Many thanks to Christian!

cm27874
European births slideshow reloaded
Here comes an update to monthly births in Europe: Now including 26 countries (previously 13) Time series (from January 2017) complete until December 2022 for 23 countries, and November 2022 for 3 countries For most countries the figures are for live births. Some might include stillbirths but these do not change the overall picture…
Read more
7 months ago · 5 likes · 7 comments · cm27874

Another substacker - Ulf Lorré - who has just recently started posting has also done some great work on this topic.

Demographic Data Analysis
Birth decline in Sweden continues 2023
Statistics Sweden provides excellent demographic data, and right quick. Already in February 2023, an annual evaluation for 2022 announced the lowest birth numbers in 17 years (-8.3%). I have examined their data, in order to uncover results that may also be valid for…
Read more
5 months ago · 2 likes · Ulf Lorré

He co-authored the paper “Decline Of Live Births In Europe”, which is available in 3 languages:

  • Decline Of Live Births In Europe (English Version)

  • Geburtenrückgang In Europa (Original German Version)

  • Baisse De La Natalité En Europe (French Version)

Methods

  • The number of live births of each month is divided by the mean number of live births in the same calendar month between 2017 and 2019

  • 1 is subtracted from the result to yield excess live births

This does not take into account demographic changes. Some countries - like Poland and England - show strong linear trends which I have not corrected for either.

The charts are all y-scaled from -40% to 10% to ease visual comparison.

Germany and Switzerland are still missing figures for December 2022.

I will be performing more work on this, while this article will merely serve me as a quick reference.

Results

Share

A Note To My Subscribers

I have been very busy analyzing US Mortality data and have prepared an elaborate article of over 50 pages dedicated to the Q3’2021 death wave, which is not quite finished yet. I might be done in a couple of days or I might take a few more weeks. Just rest assured that I am working on this.

If you are curious what the article is about, you can watch a few preview videos here. I have since moved on to creating videos of multi-linear regressions which display the weights of independent variables in a side chart.

31
Share this post

Just The Charts: European Excess Live Births

vigilance.pervaers.com
48
Share
48 Comments
Share this discussion

Just The Charts: European Excess Live Births

vigilance.pervaers.com
Ulf Lorré
Writes Demographic Data Analysis
Apr 13Liked by Fabian Spieker

Thank you for your great work, Fabian!

I have just published a supplementary work on the birth decline in Sweden. Sweden released new very recent data yesterday, stretching to February 2023. It still doesn't look like it's getting any better.

https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/birth-decline-in-sweden-continues?sd=pf

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
14 replies by Fabian Spieker and others
Mathew Crawford
Writes Rounding the Earth Newsletter
Apr 13Liked by Fabian Spieker

It is really interesting to see the nations whose negative excess birth trends begin in 2019, if not a little sooner. Hmmmmm...

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
4 replies by Fabian Spieker and others
46 more comments...
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Fabian Spieker
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing