German excess mortality by federal land
Great work, Fabian! Glad I am not the only one noticing this disturbing trend.
In your "What's next section?" you did not list Covid, do you really not think this is a factor?
Looking forward to the sequels. Charts are visually very good. Methodology is robust and well-explained. Thank you. Stellar work.
considering Hamburg came in far below the new average,
it makes one wonder if Tschentscher played with the numbers again.
Incredible work, Fabian, it forgives your name, pace George B.S. :). I forwarded you to a German friend True Believer in the Injections hoping it will make a prick in his denial defence. We will see. Curious: do you know if 5G has been beaming throughout Germany along with the Injections? Stay safe and free.
Hi Fabian. What data do I need to do the same analysis for New Zealand? I have weekly deaths going back to 2011. I can also get Actuarial data from Stats NZ. Also I've noticed that bad flu years are followed by a decline in deaths the following year.
Btw Bundesland = Federal State in EN.. Otherwise: Thanks! Great job
Many thanks for the effort you put into this.
Have you considered running an (S)ARIMA model on these time series and comparing the results with your methodology?
Fantastic set of charts!
The seasonal mortality charts are curiously perfect. The periodicity within a chart is like a metronome. And the visually almost identical charts between regions is also curious.
Is the algorithm you are using to adjust for demographics and seasonality identical for each region, such that the only thing that changes to produce each group of charts, is the input data; e.g., deaths by week, age of population, etc.?
I understand that there should be some similarities year-to-year and across regions, but these charts look too perfect, and I would think the population data must have some events that would cause some of these to look different.
Minor correction needed: in the 2010-2022 Brandenburg section, your second chart which should be "corrected for demographics" is actually a repeat of the first chart, "mortality".
Brilliant as always Fabian.I just want to ask what was happening last quarter of 1017 first quarter of 2018.There seems to be aspike there ,was it as bad flu season ,were hospitals simply overwhelmed because of the influx of immigrants/asylum seekers ,was it a combination of the 2 ? Not to be political but was Merkel's opendooor policy causing the health system to collapse?Asking as an Australian citizen.
Are the deaths broken down by age in the data? The biggest demographic issue would be if the trend is towards more younger people dying in 2022 compared to 20/21