You appear to have the data for external analyses using Bayes, which is what the world is lacking. Bayesian analysis provides probabilities modulated by dependencies. I can do that and put it in a front end- it's a free analytical system. I need access to a sample of the original database. The slices to get to the data we want displayed might not be as your database is organized, so a sample of, say 3 codes, which you pick because they look different, would suffice to develop the import technique. The various density functions will not be time dependent. Right now I don't see how time dependency gives a density function that is stable with an integration to 1. On the time dependent line, autocorrelation is probably the computational technique that would be most revealing.
In case you have already downloaded the csv, you should do so again. I messed up the proportions by calculating proportions of all mentioned icd keys instead of all death certificates, ending up with lower figures.
All fixed now. File is uploading.
Got some insanely high correlations between monthly vaccinations and certain icd-10 keys.
E.g. for 65+ and dose 1/2, I30-I52, Other forms of heart disease: 0.98 Pearson correlation.
If only I had location data in those death certificates...
Oh and I'd love for all of us covid geeks to cooperate. I intend to build a forum at https://forum.pervaers.com (already installed but empty) or maybe covdata.science. Need to find time for this.
Anyway, I just created a version with All-Cause mortality for you. The upload takes forever. My server is really slow.
You have to understand that I do not speak your language. I'm just a physical therapist who was kept from working by government laws, so I got into data.
I have my own way to talk to the numbers, which is a pretty big issue when it comes to communcating with experts like you.
I only learned what a "permutation" is yesterday and only had math back in school 20 years ago. :D
Since you are a into this stuff judging from your profile, do you happen to know how I can acquire the sequencing data of ALL SARS-CoV-2 samples sequenced world-wide? GISAID is not approving my account. I have a strong feeling that those data will reveal the whole story.
Doesn't fit the inclusion criteria,since there were no occurrences before 2020. It's multi cause, so most of these deaths should be listed under other causes.
I might use another technique sometime, that I thought up on bed yesterday night. I could just take the average from 2015-2021 and express the deviation.
Since I like these charts, I might make another site some day that displays data from 2015 onward (or even 1968), but for now this is gonna have to do.
How did you decide on your age groups? Might I suggest looking at medalerts and/or openvaers for which age groups they have used, for younger ones in particular? I'd like to suggest 2, 5, 12, 16, 18, and 25 as lower breakpoints (e.g. 18-24) looking at rollouts and CDC recommendations.
The 5 year-groups start at age 5, so I really don't have much choice above that age.
I only grouped 0-4.
This website is just a tool to me right now. I can't invest anymore time into it
I just needed to visualize this before I'm starting to identify trends in mortality across age groups programmatically. You can rest assured I will take eligibility dates for different age groups and dose series into account, but primarily I'm just looking for whatever I can find.
Well what I could do with very little effort is just for all by gender and then make two additional websites. I'll see if I can get around to it today.
I have to focus on the bigger picture here though. I correlated all excess proportions graphs with different vaccine dose series for different age groups. Results looking promising
Thanks very much. No rush for any of this. Just looked at Pfizer first 3 months of jabbing. Anaphylaxis cases 89.2% Female. 9 Died, 4 on the same day as their Jab.
Possibly, but then you have different dose series being administered and different variants going around, so it's very hard to blame it on just one factor.
Brilliant! Sharing for Data Nerds on Gettr.
I started the article with "Dear fellow geeks", but deleted that line because I thought someone might be offended. :D
Thank you for sharing.
You appear to have the data for external analyses using Bayes, which is what the world is lacking. Bayesian analysis provides probabilities modulated by dependencies. I can do that and put it in a front end- it's a free analytical system. I need access to a sample of the original database. The slices to get to the data we want displayed might not be as your database is organized, so a sample of, say 3 codes, which you pick because they look different, would suffice to develop the import technique. The various density functions will not be time dependent. Right now I don't see how time dependency gives a density function that is stable with an integration to 1. On the time dependent line, autocorrelation is probably the computational technique that would be most revealing.
In case you have already downloaded the csv, you should do so again. I messed up the proportions by calculating proportions of all mentioned icd keys instead of all death certificates, ending up with lower figures.
All fixed now. File is uploading.
Got some insanely high correlations between monthly vaccinations and certain icd-10 keys.
E.g. for 65+ and dose 1/2, I30-I52, Other forms of heart disease: 0.98 Pearson correlation.
If only I had location data in those death certificates...
Okay I've added:
- proportions
- excess proportions (proportional difference to monthly average proportions 2015-2019)
website(s) have been updated: https://cdcsucks.pervaers.com or https://cdcwonder.pervaers.com
I've also uploaded a new csv file that includes these variables.
https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/deathcertprocessed_withallcause_and_proportions.csv
You can do your voodoo magic now if you like. :)
Oh and I'd love for all of us covid geeks to cooperate. I intend to build a forum at https://forum.pervaers.com (already installed but empty) or maybe covdata.science. Need to find time for this.
Anyway, I just created a version with All-Cause mortality for you. The upload takes forever. My server is really slow.
https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/deathcertprocessed_with_allcause.csv
It might take up to an hour to upload.
Hope to hear from you via email!
You have to understand that I do not speak your language. I'm just a physical therapist who was kept from working by government laws, so I got into data.
I have my own way to talk to the numbers, which is a pretty big issue when it comes to communcating with experts like you.
I only learned what a "permutation" is yesterday and only had math back in school 20 years ago. :D
Hit me@pervaers.com up via email and we can work something out.
I already uploaded the dataset for someone else today:
https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/deathcertprocessed.csv
However this one is lacking All-Cause.
I have something else planned:
- Calculate proportions for each key
- Use that to calculate excess mortality, as if the figures represented deaths
This should give a very very different picture, I am hoping it will highlight the Q1 deaths and give us a better idea what went down in the infamous Q3'2021 (https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/Midsummer%20Massacre.png).
Since you are a into this stuff judging from your profile, do you happen to know how I can acquire the sequencing data of ALL SARS-CoV-2 samples sequenced world-wide? GISAID is not approving my account. I have a strong feeling that those data will reveal the whole story.
Great tool!
Is the U07 code not being used in the US? In Germany and other European countries, all the Covid deaths have been stuffed therein.
Doesn't fit the inclusion criteria,since there were no occurrences before 2020. It's multi cause, so most of these deaths should be listed under other causes.
I might use another technique sometime, that I thought up on bed yesterday night. I could just take the average from 2015-2021 and express the deviation.
Since I like these charts, I might make another site some day that displays data from 2015 onward (or even 1968), but for now this is gonna have to do.
How did you decide on your age groups? Might I suggest looking at medalerts and/or openvaers for which age groups they have used, for younger ones in particular? I'd like to suggest 2, 5, 12, 16, 18, and 25 as lower breakpoints (e.g. 18-24) looking at rollouts and CDC recommendations.
The 5 year-groups start at age 5, so I really don't have much choice above that age.
I only grouped 0-4.
This website is just a tool to me right now. I can't invest anymore time into it
I just needed to visualize this before I'm starting to identify trends in mortality across age groups programmatically. You can rest assured I will take eligibility dates for different age groups and dose series into account, but primarily I'm just looking for whatever I can find.
Great to hear, thank you
lol. www.cdcsucks love that. BTW, I checked around for disability info and could find a source.
Oh wow really? For newly filed disabilities? Oh my god thank you!!
Sorry. I mis-typed that. could NOT find a source. Still looking tho.
Haha thank you nonetheless <3
I see some different graphs appear when cycling thorugh G610, Guillain-Barré syndrome (0+) - Deaths per 100k?
https://geoffpain.substack.com/p/guillain-barre-syndrome-expected
I don't understand. I just see one graph for G610 0+
When I type Guil into your Info bar, and click Next or Previous, I see a different display. For the 85+ age group the bars on the right are "floating"
Yeah I fixed the filter function this morning and made some other improvements.
Selecting an age and clicking next/previous will only cycle through keys that are present for this age group now.
Should improve usability immensely.
Hello Fabian, your website is looking great with the gender analysis.
Interested in Anaphylaxis and related Pharyngeal swelling, Pharyngeal hypoaesthesia, Oropharyngeal discomfort, Pharyngeal paraesthesia, Hypoaesthesia oral, Throat irritation, Swollen tongue, Tongue discomfort, Throat tightness, Muscle spasms, Mouth swelling, Swelling face, Lip swelling, Oropharyngeal pain,
Also Nickel allergy compare with Dysgeusia, Tongue pruritus?
Breast discharge, Mastitis age range
Female Sepsis?
Male Anaphylactic shock?
It's gonna have to wait I think.
Well what I could do with very little effort is just for all by gender and then make two additional websites. I'll see if I can get around to it today.
I have to focus on the bigger picture here though. I correlated all excess proportions graphs with different vaccine dose series for different age groups. Results looking promising
Thanks very much. No rush for any of this. Just looked at Pfizer first 3 months of jabbing. Anaphylaxis cases 89.2% Female. 9 Died, 4 on the same day as their Jab.
https://www.pervaers.com/?v=COV&q=anaph
This is a much better resource for these things imho.
I also do gender adjustment for the mixed gender group and internal age structure adjustment for all age groups.
There seems to be some asymmetry in the VAERS data as well.
Different profile for Pfizer versus the rest before December 2021? The added tromethamine to Pfizer then. Moderna had it all the while.
Possibly, but then you have different dose series being administered and different variants going around, so it's very hard to blame it on just one factor.