If I am understanding this, I don't agree with your conclusion that "vaccinations alone do not explain this change in trends." The reason I say this is that your second graph show that excess infant mortality clearly increased after mother and child vaccinations. That is all you need to see to say they are related. The state data being scattered with no apparent trends is a more complicated issue.
Nice work Fabian. The graphical evidence is compelling but it could be a causal vax signal gets lost when aggregating by state and year. I think it is worth staying at the county level by month and regressing on known large effects like median household income, population, and month of year and also include lags of vax update.
If I am understanding this, I don't agree with your conclusion that "vaccinations alone do not explain this change in trends." The reason I say this is that your second graph show that excess infant mortality clearly increased after mother and child vaccinations. That is all you need to see to say they are related. The state data being scattered with no apparent trends is a more complicated issue.
An article a day keeps the doctor away.
Nice work Fabian. The graphical evidence is compelling but it could be a causal vax signal gets lost when aggregating by state and year. I think it is worth staying at the county level by month and regressing on known large effects like median household income, population, and month of year and also include lags of vax update.
> downloaded a bunch of data
Source link?