I integrated all the county level vaccination data today, but I am not gonna post any of it. These data are ridiculous. Population count in some counties is off by a factor of two (e.g. Apache county, Arizona).
I can't make a single statement about these vaccines with confidence anymore. It feels like I'm trying to get rich playing monopoly.
We don't even have reliable ACM for the 0-64 group on state level.
I will see about which counties released vaccination data for 2021. Most of them only released data starting in 2022... If we are lucky those are the same ones who are missing case data, so there would at least be data for half the counties.
Fabian, I like visualizations! lol. I don't know if this page will be helpful to you but I now you can get to many county level site from their respective state sites...: https://www.vaersaware.com/state-misc
Thank you Albert, but most of those are only snapshots. I need daily, weekly or at least monthly data reaching all the way back.
The case data displayed here is actually based on months timeseries which I stretch to sub-daily timeseries. This is actually pretty accurate, due to the waves representing natural functions. Just the peaks and lows get a bit blurry.
We have someone working on acquiring line-level vaccination data, but I'm not too optimistic that we will end up being successful without legal action, which is out of the question as of now.
Sep 5, 2023·edited Sep 5, 2023Liked by Fabian Spieker
Can you do this with the CDC's whole county dataset, for the whole pandemic? I'd like to think about the visualization with respect to the hypothesis of a series of bacterial releases.
Of course, but the data is incomplete. Both for vaccinations and cases. Only half the counties have any data listed at all in the public dataset if I remember correctly.
We actually placed a request for the large county-level case dataset. Alas I realized yesterday that it had timed out within 7 days after being approved.
Another major issue with county level data are census population estimates. Some counties are undercounted by up to 50% (Apache County), others are massively overcounted.
So when it comes to something like deaths, where there is older reference data, I can calculate excess figures without population estimates, but cases and vaccinations are meaningless without accurate population figures. :/
That being said... If you can give me county-level data, I can visualize anything on maps this way.
This is precisely why I plotted the data on a map and while there are multiple epicenters and new vaccinations do seem to be associated with increases in case rates, it is spreading just like I would expect it to.
Having reliable data for ALL counties would really shed light on this, but alas... We just don't have that.
I am not saying some regions aren't overcounting or undercounting cases. Once vaccinations began, this also influenced the dynamics.
Keep in mind there weren't really any strict criteria for diagnosis. You could just give a person a COVID diagnosis, even without any laboratory assay.
What happened in NYC or Northern Italy early on can obviously not be explained by a virus alone, but that doesn't matter that there wasn't one involved.
Delta is another good example of the disease spreading unlike a virus would. I am working on a very thorough article on that.
In the case of Delta, vaccinations supplied the growth advantage it needed to cause epidemics.
This caused millions of deaths, which is why I think trying to explain away those deaths without a virus is helping the genocidal maniacs who covered it up. In fact I think we are seeing something like controlled opposition at work right now.
Note the enormous discrepancies in case rates. Vaccination rates are still state-level.
I explained why I switched to state-level data in the article. Only 1752 out of 3143 counties are releasing case data. In fact, I put that sentence in bold for those who just take a glance at the text, like I often do.
Those that have neither border nor fill have no case data. There is vaccination data for all counties, but it is incomplete and unreliable. In some counties vaccination rates just double in a day one year into vaccinations, while others don't supply any data at all before 2022.
I've modelled almost all counties' vaccination series from the sparse data there is, but even then it is very hard to compare counties with each other, because some counties are undercounting their populations by a factor of up to 2. Apache County comes to mind. ~1.5 first doses per resident, over 60% of the population having registered a COVID case. That doesn't make any sense.
When I remove these outliers I am left with data for 50% of counties and those still have unreliable population counts. Only god knows where the data is off, hence I dropped this dataset altogether.
If you have any reliable county level data you would like to see displayed this way, my offer stands: These videos are very pretty and I can create them with very little effort now that I wrote the framework.
Send me the data as CSV (there is an explanation in the article what I would need) and I'll visualize them. I can also add some explanatory overlay text which I haven't implemented yet.
This doesn't make a lot of sense, as you note.
Can you do this with the entire pandemic?
I integrated all the county level vaccination data today, but I am not gonna post any of it. These data are ridiculous. Population count in some counties is off by a factor of two (e.g. Apache county, Arizona).
I can't make a single statement about these vaccines with confidence anymore. It feels like I'm trying to get rich playing monopoly.
We don't even have reliable ACM for the 0-64 group on state level.
Of course. County level, too.
I will see about which counties released vaccination data for 2021. Most of them only released data starting in 2022... If we are lucky those are the same ones who are missing case data, so there would at least be data for half the counties.
I will see to that.
However, the discrepancies between overall state-level and county-level case rates are pretty striking. Here's the county-level video that I did not post: https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/counties_79-84%3B1686844222.mp4
Fabian, I like visualizations! lol. I don't know if this page will be helpful to you but I now you can get to many county level site from their respective state sites...: https://www.vaersaware.com/state-misc
Thank you Albert, but most of those are only snapshots. I need daily, weekly or at least monthly data reaching all the way back.
The case data displayed here is actually based on months timeseries which I stretch to sub-daily timeseries. This is actually pretty accurate, due to the waves representing natural functions. Just the peaks and lows get a bit blurry.
We have someone working on acquiring line-level vaccination data, but I'm not too optimistic that we will end up being successful without legal action, which is out of the question as of now.
Can you do this with the CDC's whole county dataset, for the whole pandemic? I'd like to think about the visualization with respect to the hypothesis of a series of bacterial releases.
Of course, but the data is incomplete. Both for vaccinations and cases. Only half the counties have any data listed at all in the public dataset if I remember correctly.
We actually placed a request for the large county-level case dataset. Alas I realized yesterday that it had timed out within 7 days after being approved.
Another major issue with county level data are census population estimates. Some counties are undercounted by up to 50% (Apache County), others are massively overcounted.
So when it comes to something like deaths, where there is older reference data, I can calculate excess figures without population estimates, but cases and vaccinations are meaningless without accurate population figures. :/
That being said... If you can give me county-level data, I can visualize anything on maps this way.
Fabian where did your sequences Stack go?
It will be back, but I was advised to take it down for now.
There are 15mio sequences. I only acquired 4.5.
I intend to get the remaining 10mio, but publishing it all now is highly likely to make that impossible.
Once I've got the full GISAID dataset, I will upload all the data again.
They throttle and ban accounts. It took me 150h to even download these data before I was banned.
This clearly shows that it's not caused by a respiratory virus, just as Dr. Rancourt had noted too.
I strongly disagree with that statement.
This is precisely why I plotted the data on a map and while there are multiple epicenters and new vaccinations do seem to be associated with increases in case rates, it is spreading just like I would expect it to.
Having reliable data for ALL counties would really shed light on this, but alas... We just don't have that.
Well, Dr. Rancourts argument is that a virus should equally spread, shouldn't it?
How is it possible that certain counties apparently do not see any elevation in cases or excess deaths?
I am not saying some regions aren't overcounting or undercounting cases. Once vaccinations began, this also influenced the dynamics.
Keep in mind there weren't really any strict criteria for diagnosis. You could just give a person a COVID diagnosis, even without any laboratory assay.
What happened in NYC or Northern Italy early on can obviously not be explained by a virus alone, but that doesn't matter that there wasn't one involved.
Delta is another good example of the disease spreading unlike a virus would. I am working on a very thorough article on that.
In the case of Delta, vaccinations supplied the growth advantage it needed to cause epidemics.
This caused millions of deaths, which is why I think trying to explain away those deaths without a virus is helping the genocidal maniacs who covered it up. In fact I think we are seeing something like controlled opposition at work right now.
oh, looks like you used county map, but state data? It's a bit misleading, isn't it?
Here is a video with county level data:
https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/counties_79-84%3B1686844222.mp4
Note the enormous discrepancies in case rates. Vaccination rates are still state-level.
I explained why I switched to state-level data in the article. Only 1752 out of 3143 counties are releasing case data. In fact, I put that sentence in bold for those who just take a glance at the text, like I often do.
Thx. Do the counties that never turn red (stay white) have no data or simply no/very low case rates?
Those that have neither border nor fill have no case data. There is vaccination data for all counties, but it is incomplete and unreliable. In some counties vaccination rates just double in a day one year into vaccinations, while others don't supply any data at all before 2022.
I've modelled almost all counties' vaccination series from the sparse data there is, but even then it is very hard to compare counties with each other, because some counties are undercounting their populations by a factor of up to 2. Apache County comes to mind. ~1.5 first doses per resident, over 60% of the population having registered a COVID case. That doesn't make any sense.
When I remove these outliers I am left with data for 50% of counties and those still have unreliable population counts. Only god knows where the data is off, hence I dropped this dataset altogether.
If you have any reliable county level data you would like to see displayed this way, my offer stands: These videos are very pretty and I can create them with very little effort now that I wrote the framework.
Send me the data as CSV (there is an explanation in the article what I would need) and I'll visualize them. I can also add some explanatory overlay text which I haven't implemented yet.