The discrepancy in the first quarter of 2021 might also be explained by the changing vaccine mix (larger proportion of J&J and AZ first, later on more mRNA).
And the just-released German mortality data is remarkable indeed (with qualification: not for all age groups).
The number of people vaccinated with J&J or AZ a too small to have any significant impact, but you gave me an idea! The data could be limited to countries that deployed modRNA vaccines or to those that have not approved the Cuban, Chinese or Russian vaccine.
Looking forward to checking out the German data tomorrow. I'll definitely post an update to the last article which looked only at age group 0+, but which groups should I also be looking at?
I guess that if you plan to somehow compare deaths to vaccination rates, looking at 60+ will make sense (since our health bureaucrats, in their infinite wisdom, had decided not to make too fine a distinction when tracking vaccination rates). 35-44 also looks curious to me, but this might have to do with this group having a high rate of Ukrainian refugees.
Fabian, they are all in cahoots with each other. They are throttling data in lockstep. VAERS has been severely throttling published reports. See here: https://i.imgur.com/qrwO2tg.jpg
How is it that all throttled reports also are UNKNOWN domestic territory?
I talked to someone who told me they've been delaying census data throughout further and further throughout the past 10 years. Underfunding as a weapon.
Excellent work! I believe it was Joel Smalley of Metatron last year who gave the first mathematical evidence that the jabs ignited Delta outbreaks in the USA. But your analysis is really the clincher.
"Despite making its first appearance in Portugal in early April 2020, the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 only became the most prevalent variant after global deployment of the COVID-19 ModRNA vaccines and was only displaced by the Omicron variant after the booster campaign had been initiated."
Edited: That is interesting. I had read that Delta existed since December 2020 but didn't catch on until many months later. First India, then the UK, then elsewhere. The plot thickens.....
None of the old models work unless Delta had an index case no earlier than October.
That is still what Wikipedia is saying:
"It was first detected in India on 5 October 2020"
However no source is mentioned for this claim.
B.1.617.2 was sequenced 3 times in week 14 of 2020 in Portugal and shortly thereafter in Spain and Germany.
And yes, I agree, the plot thickens. This is a pretty major gap in the narrative. Delta should have spread much earlier if it was more infectious than other variants that circulated in 2020. Yet this took another year.
Funny thing is I only realized this while wrapping up the article.
Jan 11, 2023·edited Jan 11, 2023Liked by Fabian Spieker
Indeed, much like Omicron, Delta was also originally taken from the REJECT pile, where it lingered until the jabs triggered it. That doesn't typically happen in nature at all, without a strong artificial stimulus. In this case, spike-only jabs that put selective pressure on the spike protein that acted as a magnet for a partial escape variant (Delta), and then a full escape variant (Omicron), following the boosters. And after the recent bivalent boosters, even more selective pressure on the spike then released the so-called "Kraken" of XBB1.5.
In other words, had there been either no jabs at all, or only the inactivated whole-virus ones like Sinopharm, Sinovac, or Covaxin, the pandemic would have been over with Alpha and its descendants becoming largely endemic, with maybe a little bit of Beta and Gamma descendants in some places, via real herd immunity by mid-2021. It would have been a textbook 18 months total, not 3 years. And fewer deaths in the long run as well.
I love how all broadcasting stations told us "vaccines are the way to normalcy" or "variants are appearing due to the immunity gap that the unvaccinated create".
These aren't just lies. These statements express the exact opposite of what is true. I think they serve to immunize against truth. Hence some degree of knowledge about the truth can be expected from the initiators of these lies.
They spoke lots of lies ... and continue to do so.. it is surprising how closely your model works given there are many other factors that could be driving variants..
I have wondered if omicron was an intentional release to lesson the fear after everyone was vaccinated and the lockdowns opened up? It spread across the world in 3-4 weeks when borders were still closed and the most stringent quarantine conditions were still in place.. in Australia as an island nation that’s pretty tight.. yet omicron spread incredibly rapidly in the midst of the booster campaign (December January Feb) but also at the tail end of the first two shots because mandates really didn’t kick in in the wider population till October November..
and bear in mind those who got jabbed also got and spread omicron..
We have just had a similar wave of infection here before Christmas
Anyway it’s interesting work you have done.. I work in Agriculture and have seen herbicide resistance develop very rapidly with highly specific mode of action..which these jabs appear to be..
I wonder who "released" the Kraken... I think it's Moderna.
Things seem to be more complicated than I am presenting them. The various products seem to be different enough to cause different variants to gain predominance.
I am pretty convinced we could attribute variants to specific products and dose series if the variant and vaccination data contained more information.
There is also another contributing factor to Omicron accumulating so many mutations: Molnupiravir.
Ever since it's introduction in early January 2022, unknown variants shot through the roof. They were at round about 0% during late 2021, but are now taking up ~30% of all sequenced samples.
Jan 11, 2023·edited Jan 11, 2023Liked by Fabian Spieker
The most recent common ancestor of Omicron BA.1/BA.2/BA.3 was way back in April 2020 I believe. It was an even more rejected lineage than Delta was, and even more divergent, that was not reported to be seen between April 2020 and November 2021, but it had to have been simmering somewhere on the back burner (unless perhaps a lab in South Africa took it from an old sample, tinkered with it, and leaked it). Either way, it wouldn't have taken over like it did without the jabs to provoke it and attract it.
Indeed, the variant soup is a result of both the spike-selective jabs as well as the highly mutagenic molnupiravir.
And it is correct that only a fraction of the population is susceptible to each variant. And also only a fraction gets infected by each seasonal wave of the same variant as well. So herd immunity and endemicity would have been reached as early as late 2020 or early 2021 at the latest if there were no jabs, especially if there were no lockdowns.
wow great article and work !
Thank you! :)
Very impressive!
The discrepancy in the first quarter of 2021 might also be explained by the changing vaccine mix (larger proportion of J&J and AZ first, later on more mRNA).
And the just-released German mortality data is remarkable indeed (with qualification: not for all age groups).
The number of people vaccinated with J&J or AZ a too small to have any significant impact, but you gave me an idea! The data could be limited to countries that deployed modRNA vaccines or to those that have not approved the Cuban, Chinese or Russian vaccine.
Looking forward to checking out the German data tomorrow. I'll definitely post an update to the last article which looked only at age group 0+, but which groups should I also be looking at?
I guess that if you plan to somehow compare deaths to vaccination rates, looking at 60+ will make sense (since our health bureaucrats, in their infinite wisdom, had decided not to make too fine a distinction when tracking vaccination rates). 35-44 also looks curious to me, but this might have to do with this group having a high rate of Ukrainian refugees.
Awesome post! I did something similar on a MUCH smaller scale as it pertains to Grenada.
http://winduprubberfinger.com/blog1.php/2021/09/18/grenada
It was interesting, because the COVID case rate was low, until people started getting vaccinated. Then it skyrocketed.
Yup. That is the real crime. Left you a comment. :)
Fabian, they are all in cahoots with each other. They are throttling data in lockstep. VAERS has been severely throttling published reports. See here: https://i.imgur.com/qrwO2tg.jpg
How is it that all throttled reports also are UNKNOWN domestic territory?
I talked to someone who told me they've been delaying census data throughout further and further throughout the past 10 years. Underfunding as a weapon.
Great find, thank you Albert!
Excellent work! I believe it was Joel Smalley of Metatron last year who gave the first mathematical evidence that the jabs ignited Delta outbreaks in the USA. But your analysis is really the clincher.
Oh really? I have to read his article in that case.
I think it was sometime in late 2021 or early 2022 that he wrote it.
Excellent work.
Thank you!
"Despite making its first appearance in Portugal in early April 2020, the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 only became the most prevalent variant after global deployment of the COVID-19 ModRNA vaccines and was only displaced by the Omicron variant after the booster campaign had been initiated."
Edited: That is interesting. I had read that Delta existed since December 2020 but didn't catch on until many months later. First India, then the UK, then elsewhere. The plot thickens.....
None of the old models work unless Delta had an index case no earlier than October.
That is still what Wikipedia is saying:
"It was first detected in India on 5 October 2020"
However no source is mentioned for this claim.
B.1.617.2 was sequenced 3 times in week 14 of 2020 in Portugal and shortly thereafter in Spain and Germany.
And yes, I agree, the plot thickens. This is a pretty major gap in the narrative. Delta should have spread much earlier if it was more infectious than other variants that circulated in 2020. Yet this took another year.
Funny thing is I only realized this while wrapping up the article.
Indeed, much like Omicron, Delta was also originally taken from the REJECT pile, where it lingered until the jabs triggered it. That doesn't typically happen in nature at all, without a strong artificial stimulus. In this case, spike-only jabs that put selective pressure on the spike protein that acted as a magnet for a partial escape variant (Delta), and then a full escape variant (Omicron), following the boosters. And after the recent bivalent boosters, even more selective pressure on the spike then released the so-called "Kraken" of XBB1.5.
In other words, had there been either no jabs at all, or only the inactivated whole-virus ones like Sinopharm, Sinovac, or Covaxin, the pandemic would have been over with Alpha and its descendants becoming largely endemic, with maybe a little bit of Beta and Gamma descendants in some places, via real herd immunity by mid-2021. It would have been a textbook 18 months total, not 3 years. And fewer deaths in the long run as well.
But we didn't get the good ending, did we?
And no, we didn't get the good ending.
I love how all broadcasting stations told us "vaccines are the way to normalcy" or "variants are appearing due to the immunity gap that the unvaccinated create".
These aren't just lies. These statements express the exact opposite of what is true. I think they serve to immunize against truth. Hence some degree of knowledge about the truth can be expected from the initiators of these lies.
They spoke lots of lies ... and continue to do so.. it is surprising how closely your model works given there are many other factors that could be driving variants..
I have wondered if omicron was an intentional release to lesson the fear after everyone was vaccinated and the lockdowns opened up? It spread across the world in 3-4 weeks when borders were still closed and the most stringent quarantine conditions were still in place.. in Australia as an island nation that’s pretty tight.. yet omicron spread incredibly rapidly in the midst of the booster campaign (December January Feb) but also at the tail end of the first two shots because mandates really didn’t kick in in the wider population till October November..
and bear in mind those who got jabbed also got and spread omicron..
We have just had a similar wave of infection here before Christmas
Anyway it’s interesting work you have done.. I work in Agriculture and have seen herbicide resistance develop very rapidly with highly specific mode of action..which these jabs appear to be..
Do you know when BA.1 was first seen?
I read an old article this morning that claimed we reached herd immunity in 2020: https://www.hartgroup.org/only-a-fraction-of-the-population-are-susceptible-to-each-variant
I wonder who "released" the Kraken... I think it's Moderna.
Things seem to be more complicated than I am presenting them. The various products seem to be different enough to cause different variants to gain predominance.
I am pretty convinced we could attribute variants to specific products and dose series if the variant and vaccination data contained more information.
There is also another contributing factor to Omicron accumulating so many mutations: Molnupiravir.
Ever since it's introduction in early January 2022, unknown variants shot through the roof. They were at round about 0% during late 2021, but are now taking up ~30% of all sequenced samples.
The most recent common ancestor of Omicron BA.1/BA.2/BA.3 was way back in April 2020 I believe. It was an even more rejected lineage than Delta was, and even more divergent, that was not reported to be seen between April 2020 and November 2021, but it had to have been simmering somewhere on the back burner (unless perhaps a lab in South Africa took it from an old sample, tinkered with it, and leaked it). Either way, it wouldn't have taken over like it did without the jabs to provoke it and attract it.
Indeed, the variant soup is a result of both the spike-selective jabs as well as the highly mutagenic molnupiravir.
And it is correct that only a fraction of the population is susceptible to each variant. And also only a fraction gets infected by each seasonal wave of the same variant as well. So herd immunity and endemicity would have been reached as early as late 2020 or early 2021 at the latest if there were no jabs, especially if there were no lockdowns.
Thank you for elaborating. This is valuable information. It's not easy working through all the lies out there.
You're very welcome :)