My first substack posts in July last year looked at the issue of the dramatic fall in wedding rates in 2020-21 and a possible connection with the dramatic fall in birth rates in 2022:
Interesting that you settled on a 43 week lag correlation - I found it very difficult to find data on the average time between first births and marriage. (Data on the average time between subsequent births and first births is more readily available. As is data on the proportion of live births which are a mother's first, second, third etc child.)
There´s a big difference in vaccination rates between West and East Germany. So you would expect less negative excess in East Germany. But that clearly isn´t the case. I wonder whether the confounder might be the proportion of immigrant young women. In West Germany it approaches 40% in some states whereas in the East it is much lower. On the other hand the proportion of vaccinated is much lower among immigrants. So maybe the number of immigrants in the West offsets the lower vaccination rate in the East? Mr. Spieker, has that thought occured to you and do you have any idea how to tease out these numbers?
Hi Fabian, thanks for the post, I'm still not sure what this means.
In demography, almost everything is age-dependent. East-west comparisons often ignore the confounder that populations in eastern states of Germany are the oldest. Because age and vaccination rate are related, one cannot decide whether there is an age influence or a vaccination influence.
Germany: Where Is The Love?
Hi Fabian,
My first substack posts in July last year looked at the issue of the dramatic fall in wedding rates in 2020-21 and a possible connection with the dramatic fall in birth rates in 2022:
https://lostintranslations.substack.com/p/why-is-there-a-sudden-drop-in-german
Interesting that you settled on a 43 week lag correlation - I found it very difficult to find data on the average time between first births and marriage. (Data on the average time between subsequent births and first births is more readily available. As is data on the proportion of live births which are a mother's first, second, third etc child.)
There´s a big difference in vaccination rates between West and East Germany. So you would expect less negative excess in East Germany. But that clearly isn´t the case. I wonder whether the confounder might be the proportion of immigrant young women. In West Germany it approaches 40% in some states whereas in the East it is much lower. On the other hand the proportion of vaccinated is much lower among immigrants. So maybe the number of immigrants in the West offsets the lower vaccination rate in the East? Mr. Spieker, has that thought occured to you and do you have any idea how to tease out these numbers?
Thank you VERY MUCH
I will read this essay and think before answer .
If we understand why people obey so easily we can find the solution.
The history repeats since the dawn of time .
Hi Fabian, thanks for the post, I'm still not sure what this means.
In demography, almost everything is age-dependent. East-west comparisons often ignore the confounder that populations in eastern states of Germany are the oldest. Because age and vaccination rate are related, one cannot decide whether there is an age influence or a vaccination influence.
The love is gone definitely from our world.
Very interesting indeed. Thanks Fabian