Excess deaths and boosters by state in Germany

Booster rates and excess mortality rates of 2022 correlate strongly

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Summary

After having previously demonstrated that German booster waves precede German COVID-19 waves by 13 weeks which was confirmed by VAERS reports, I looked at German booster rates and German excess mortality by state.

I found the Pearson correlation coefficient between the proportion of people who have received a booster dose and the respective average weekly excess mortality of each state to be 0.63, which is known as a strong correlation.

The 2 states with the lowest excess mortality for 2022 (Sachsen and Thüringen) are the ones with the lowest booster rates.

Boosters are causing excess mortality by making people more susceptible to severe COVID-19 which I deduce from the following observations:

1. Each of the 3 waves of booster administrations is followed by a wave of COVID-19 cases 13 weeks later and a wave of excess mortality 15-16 weeks later.

2. VAERS reports show a peak in reports about COVID-19 pneumonia in the 14th week after administration of a booster dose.

3. The Pearson correlation between the average weekly excess mortality rate of 2022 and the proportion of people who have received a booster is 0.63 (strong).

4. The 2 states with the lowest excess mortality rates are the ones with the lowest booster rates.

5. Extended booster vaccination has been shown to induce humoral and cellular immune tolerance in mice.

Data sources

• COVID-19 cases

• German mortality by state

• Booster rates by state

• Boosters administered per day

Methods

The temporal correlation between booster waves, COVID-19 waves and waves of excess deaths in Germany was demonstrated in another article, but the results are included in this article.

I calculate excess mortality using Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as an example and display excess mortality graphs of all 16 states for the first 44 weeks of the year 2022:

1. The linear trend in raw mortality is determined between the years 2010 and 2019

2. The mortality trend is owed to the changing German demographics and is subtracted from the raw mortality

3. For each week the average mortality between 2010 and 2019 is calculated to yield the expected seasonal mortality

4. The trend-corrected mortality (2) is divided by the seasonal mortality (3) after which 1 (=100%) is subtracted from the result to yield the excess mortality.

The Pearson correlation is calculated between the booster rates for each state (supplied by the German health ministry) and the average weekly excess mortality of these states in 2022.

The data can be downloaded in JSON format via this link.

Results

Temporal correlation with COVID-19 cases

I discussed this in detail in this article.

VAERS

There is a peak in reports about COVID-19 pneumonia in week 14 after booster doses, but in week 28 after the 2nd dose series:

Literature

Gao et al. concluded, that their “findings revealed that repeated dosing after the establishment of vaccine response might not further improve the antigen-specific reactivity; instead, it could cause systematic tolerance and inability to generate effective humoral and cellular immune responses to current SARS-CoV-2 variants.”

Excess mortality example

Mortality has been on the rise in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern since early 2020. To find out if boosters exacerbate or attenuate the trend, we will only look at the first 44 weeks of 2022, for which there is data available.

Excess mortality of all German states in 2022

Pearson correlation coefficient

Proportions of boostered people

Average weekly excess mortality rates:

• Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 13.0%

• Saarland: 12.9%

• Rheinland-Pfalz: 11.9%

• Bremen: 11.9%

• Sachsen-Anhalt: 10.7%

• Brandenburg: 10.6%

• Schleswig-Holstein: 10.6%

• Bayern: 10.5%

• Niedersachsen: 10.4%

• Hamburg: 9.9%

• Hessen: 9.8%

• Nordrhein-Westfalen: 9.5%

• Baden-Württemberg: 8.5%

• Berlin: 8.2%

• Thüringen: 8.1%

• Sachsen: 5.9%

Observations:

• The Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.63.

• Sachsen has the lowest booster rate (50.6%) and the lowest excess mortality rate (5.9%)

• Thüringen has the second-lowest booster rate (54.2%) and the second-lowest excess mortality rate (8.1%)

• Saarland has the second-highest booster rate (69.5%) and the second-highest excess mortality rate (12.9%)

• Bremen has the third-highest booster rate (67.5%) and the third-highest excess mortality rate (11.9%)

Conclusion

Boosters are causing excess mortality by making people more susceptible to severe COVID-19 which I deduce from the following observations:

1. Each of the 3 waves of booster administrations is followed by a wave of COVID-19 cases 13 weeks later and a wave of excess mortality 15-16 weeks later.

2. VAERS reports show a peak in reports about COVID-19 pneumonia in the 14th week after administration of a booster dose.

3. The Pearson correlation between the average weekly excess mortality rate of 2022 and the proportion of people who have received a booster is 0.63 (strong).

4. The 2 states with the lowest excess mortality rates are the ones with the lowest booster rates.

5. Extended booster vaccination has been shown to induce humoral and cellular immune tolerance in mice.