Interactive vaccine mortality charts
Interactive vaccine mortality charts
Age stratified excess mortality charts (https://usa.pervaers.com)
Go straight to the website
Summary
I am currently trying to estimate the impact vaccinations had on US mortality.
In order to get a better feel of what is going on, I always do a lot of staring. Just staring at charts for hours on end.
If that sounds like fun, I created just the website for you! On it you will find excess mortality charts for all US jurisdictions and age groups. Each chart displays three graphs:
Weekly excess mortality
Weekly vaccine doses administered to residents (stratified by dose series)
Weekly COVID deaths (estimated for groups other than 0+)
https://usa.pervaers.com
From the navigation bar you can pick
region
age group
dose series
Right below the navigation bar you will find a slider to configure deaths per vaccine dose.
When you move the slider, the specified proportion of vaccine doses is subtracted from excess mortality, showing you what the excess mortality graph would look like if no vaccine doses had been administered.
Methods
The number of COVID deaths for any age group other than 0+ is estimated based on the age structure of COVID deaths in Indiana, which my reader Stewart W. has acquired per FOIA request and kindly supplied to me.
I use Indiana’s age structure to proportionally assign risks and then derive the age structure of COVID deaths in other states from the respective regional age structure. It’s the best I could do without age-stratified data for COVID deaths.
Example
This is national excess mortality for all age groups, assuming the vaccines are perfectly safe.
Next we will assume, that 1 person dies for every 1500 administered doses.
Once the slider is moved you will see what excess deaths would amount to if no vaccines had been administered.
Notice how the anomaly right after the peak of excess deaths in early Q1’21 is evened out and how we can see mortality displacement occuring after a lot of frail people were killed by COVID-19 in 2020.
You will see vaccination campaigns nearly always coincide with episodes during which we would anticipate some degree of mortality deficit.
If you happen to find any peculiarities, please do post a comment and tell my readers and me what it is that you noticed. Don’t forget to mention the age group, the dose series and the region.
Enjoy!
Great work!
Maybe it would be useful to have an additional slider, to be able to play with time-lag between vaccination and vaccine-related death?
lol Fabian! I also just stare at charts for hours. Sometimes when I stare long enough and cross my eyes I can see the magic dolphin hiding in the picture!